The Ministry of Economy and Finance projects that the country's average monthly pension will reach UZS 1.8 million in 2027, up from an estimated UZS 1.7 million in 2026.
The forecast is contained in the ministry's 2027–2029 Fiscal Strategy, which also expects the number of pension recipients to increase by 165,000 over the year to 4.592 million people.
Based on the rounded figures in the document, the average pension would increase by about 5.9%. However, the strategy rounds projected pension amounts to the nearest UZS 100,000 and does not specify the exact growth rate.
The Pension Fund's expenditures are forecast to reach UZS 95.7 trillion in 2027, an increase of 11.1% compared with the expected level for 2026. The ministry attributes the rise in spending, among other factors, to the growing number of pension recipients.
The fund's revenues are expected to grow by 14% to UZS 73.8 trillion, with social tax remaining the main source of income and projected to generate UZS 71.4 trillion. To cover the deficit and ensure timely pension payments, the government plans to allocate UZS 23 trillion from the republican budget, the same amount earmarked for 2026.
According to the medium-term forecast, the number of pension recipients will continue to grow, reaching 4.76 million in 2028 and 4.94 million in 2029. The average pension is projected at UZS 1.9 million in 2028 and UZS 2.1 million in 2029, while Pension Fund expenditures could rise to UZS 119.4 trillion by the end of the forecast period.
The ministry cautions that, without structural reforms, the pension system will remain highly dependent on budget transfers throughout 2027–2029. It identifies informal employment, which limits the fund's revenue base, and social tax exemptions granted to certain categories of legal entities as the main challenges.
To broaden pension coverage, the ministry proposes gradually requiring registered self-employed individuals, who currently do not pay social tax, to begin making contributions. It also suggests allowing citizens with formal employment to voluntarily pay social tax on behalf of unemployed family members so they can accumulate pensionable work experience.
In addition, the strategy calls for limiting the introduction of new social tax exemptions and gradually phasing out existing ones.
As of June 1, Uzbekistan had more than 4.35 million pension recipients. Around 3.6 million received old-age pensions, 484,500 received disability pensions and 260,600 received survivor's pensions.
The nationwide average monthly pension stood at UZS 1.58 million as of June 1. Following a 7% pension increase that took effect on July 1, the average amount has risen further. In Tashkent, the average pension was significantly higher, at UZS 2.16 million.
