Central Bank keeps key rate unchanged at 14%

The regulator explained that although annual inflation has slowed, price-increasing risks linked to external supply factors persist amid strong aggregate demand. Moreover, inflation in the services sector remains high. Taking these factors into account, the Central Bank kept the rate unchanged.

The Bank also improved its inflation forecast for the end of 2025, expecting it to stand around 8%.

Inflation trends and monetary policy conditions

According to the Central Bank’s press release, overall inflation in September 2025 fell by 0.8 percentage points, reaching 8% year-on-year. Inflation in food and non-food goods slowed to 6.1%, contributing to the overall decrease. However, services inflation – even excluding regulated prices – remains higher than the overall inflation rate, mainly due to demand-side factors.

As tight monetary conditions and a stronger exchange rate continued to curb inflationary pressures, core inflation shifted to a downward trend, slowing to 7% year-on-year in September. The strengthening of the UZS helped moderate imported inflation and contributed to greater price stability in non-food goods.

The share of goods and services in the consumer basket showing slower price growth compared to the same period last year has increased, suggesting that price stabilization is becoming more broad-based.

Public and business inflation expectations continued to decline in September but still remain above current and projected inflation levels.

Updated forecasts and economic outlook

Considering the recent developments, the Central Bank revised its inflation forecast downward, now expecting it to settle around 8% by the end of 2025 (compared to the earlier projection of 8.7% announced at the 11 September meeting).

High economic growth and investment activity observed in the third quarter are expected to continue into the next quarter, with annual real GDP growth projected at around 7–7.5%.

Rising real incomes and active retail lending are supporting household purchasing power and driving consumer demand, which may sustain inflationary pressures in the future.

At the same time, the Bank warned of potential secondary effects from upcoming energy price liberalization and risks related to certain supply-side constraints in specific goods.

Under these conditions, maintaining tight monetary policy is seen as necessary to ensure a sustained downward trend in inflation.

Such conditions, according to the Central Bank, will help preserve the attractiveness of savings, keep lending growth at a moderate pace, balance aggregate demand, and mitigate the impact of monetary factors on inflation.

In the medium term, the Central Bank plans to maintain sufficiently tight monetary conditions to achieve its inflation target of 5%.

The next Board meeting to review the key rate is scheduled for 11 December 2025.